First off, some site news about DansGeekStop.
The migration appears to be complete from everything I can see, and everything went smoothly. That honestly shocks the hell out of me considering I handled the entire migration myself.
I’d also like everyone to say hello to my new host, InMotion Hosting.
And with a bit of sadness, I say goodbye to Lomag, my former host. They treated me well over the years, and I wish them nothing but the best in the future.
Now to the post.
Over the years, we have been warned that the world is overpopulated and will continue to be overpopulated. The current population of the world sits around 8 billion people, with estimates that it will peak at around 10 billion before stabilizing.
But what is rarely discussed is population implosion. And this has been discussed far more than the news media or the gloom-and-doom crowd want you to know about.
“Discussions around population implosion (or fertility collapse and depopulation) have been prominent in academic and political discourse since the late 1990s, with roots extending back to the 1970s.”
That is correct. Population implosion has been talked about since the 1970s.
So, what is population implosion? Well, a quick Google search for the term provides the following explanation:
“Population implosion (often called population collapse) is a demographic crisis where fertility rates fall drastically below the replacement level. Over time, this leads to a shrinking population, a rapidly aging society, and long-term economic instability.”
So, which is it? And where are we now?
Truthfully, it depends on what part of the world you’re talking about. If you look at what are generally considered modern societies, you’ll find that birth rates are already falling. On the other hand, if you look at less developed societies, population growth is still expanding.
Here is something interesting that I recently found and, honestly, only knew part of myself. The following information comes from statista, Visual Capitalists, The Atlantic
1. The Lowest-Fertility Nations
East Asian territories and select Eastern European countries lead the world in the lowest number of births per woman:
- Macau & Hong Kong: ~0.68 births per woman
- South Korea: ~0.72 births per woman, consistently recording some of the lowest rates on earth
- Albania: ~1.09 births per woman
2. Major Economies with Below-Replacement Rates
Highly populous countries and major economic engines have also dropped well below the stable population threshold:
- China: ~1.02 births per woman, impacted heavily by the decades-long One-Child Policy
- Brazil: ~1.60 births per woman
- United States: ~1.62 births per woman
- India: ~1.94 births per woman, dropping below replacement level
3. Rapidly Declining Developing Nations
Some regions historically known for high birth rates are seeing the steepest, most sudden declines due to urbanization and educational advancements:
- Mexico: Dropping steadily to ~1.87 births per woman
- Iran: Dropping to ~1.67 births per woman
Like I said, interesting. I knew about the falling birth rates in a number of these nations. But there was defiantly some surprises there too. Brazil, India, Mexico, Iran.
Now, I know many people may see this as a good thing. However, what is often left out of the discussion is that modern societies generally require a fertility rate of about 2.1 children per woman to maintain a stable population over the long term.
Once again, I turn to Google for the following explanation:
“A modern society typically requires a total fertility rate (TFR) of 2.1 children per woman to maintain a stable population. This standard “replacement rate” allows a population to replace itself across generations without relying on immigration, accounting for child mortality and a natural male-to-female birth ratio.”
Ok, let’s move past the technical mumbo jumbo for a moment.
When we talk about a stable population, you have to understand what that actually means. Our population is aging, and the birth rates being discussed are generally considered the level needed to both replace the existing population and provide enough workers to care for both the young and the old.
Someone has to produce the goods, grow the food, maintain the infrastructure, provide healthcare, and keep society running.
And let’s be honest, it isn’t us old farts doing most of that.
SSigh, now to a subject that I need to discuss very carefully.
This site is not political, and this is a very sensitive topic for a lot of people: immigration.
Many will say that immigration is the answer to the problem of falling birth rates. But is it really?
There are several things that need to be considered when discussing immigration. Currently, much of the immigration occurring today comes from nations that are experiencing their own falling birth rates. And if the immigration comes from less developed nations, do those immigrants actually possess the skills needed to help maintain a modern society?
And to be quite honest, immigration may do little more than kick the can down the road. As birth rates have fallen in modern societies, the birth rates of immigrant populations often decline over time as well.
So, does immigration really solve the problem of maintaining a stable population?
Lol, so now you’re probably thinking we’re screwed if we do, and screwed if we don’t.
Too few people, and we may not be able to maintain society as we know it. Too many people, and we put increasing pressure on resources.
Well, I still think there is hope.
Like most things, however, that hope comes with both good news and bad news.
AI and robotics.
Let’s address the bad news about AI and robotics first.
This rapidly developing technology scares a lot of people. It is, and will continue to, cause the loss of some jobs. That’s simply a fact.
But if we are facing a situation where there may not be enough people to maintain society as we know it, what other options do we really have?
If there are not enough people to produce goods, care for an aging population with increasing medical needs, maintain infrastructure, and keep essential services running, then something has to fill that gap.
Who is going to produce the goods?
Now for the good news.
Even though many people may not agree with me on this, I think the arrival of AI and robotics couldn’t be happening at a better time.
We haven’t reached the point of population implosion yet, but I believe we’re getting close. Having this technology mature now is probably far better than having it arrive after the demographic problems become severe and we’re left scrambling for solutions.
In other words, it’s better to develop and refine these technologies before the situation becomes critical rather than after the fact, when there may be little we can do about it.
The truth is, I don’t know what the answer is.
What I do know is that population decline, aging societies, immigration, AI, and robotics are all connected in ways that most people rarely discuss together.
Perhaps AI and robotics arrive in time to help. Perhaps they don’t. Perhaps immigration helps. Perhaps it only delays the problem.
What seems clear to me is that this issue is becoming more important with each passing year, and I don’t think most people fully appreciate how many pieces of the puzzle are connected.
Maybe I’m wrong.
But it is certainly something worth thinking about.